Review & Outlook

Our take on the investing, financial, & economic themes of the day

A Creditless Recovery

21 April, 2011 by Ben O'Brien in Commentary

The excuse for government control of the banking sector is the latter’s importance to the entire economic system. Well, maybe the banking sector isn’t so crucial after all, judging from how the recovery proceeds without an expansion of credit. According to the Bank Credit Analyst of April 4, 2011, we are several quarters now into a recovery from the Great Recession with falling bank credit. Emerging market companies learned how to operate without credit; now it appears that companies in the developed West are too. What’s the bottom line? Policy makers have even fewer tools than they thought they had. Recoveries are more subdued without credit, but may be ultimately more durable, and that’s progress.

Mark O’Brien

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