Predicting the Staying-Power of the Trump Rally

13 December, 2016 by Matthew O'Brien, Ph.D. in Commentary
Broken clocks have the virtue of being right twice a day.  What about broken stock market strategists?  They’re usually worse than broken clocks, because most of them change their predictions after they fail to materialize.  Thus I read today this snippet in the Wall Street Journal: ... read more...

Post-Election Reflections

10 November, 2016 by Mark O'Brien in Commentary
What If Trump wins which, we are told, is more likely than the polls would suggest?  The result could be a bit like the aftermath of the Brexit vote:  a sharp selloff, and then a rebound as investors rediscover that the president is part of a much larger system of overlapping and competing ... read more...

Why We Sold Wells Fargo

19 October, 2016 by Matthew O'Brien, Ph.D. in Commentary
Below is an excerpt from our sell report for Wells Fargo.  Many commentators have missed the real significance of the bank scandal, we think, which is about managerial negligence and a weak commitment to its fiduciary obligations to the shareholder owners of the bank.  Wells Fargo’s ... read more...

Twenty years from now, would you rather be paid in euros or pounds?

17 October, 2016 by Matthew O'Brien, Ph.D. in Commentary
I asked myself this question as I read the commentary about the recent sell-off in the pound sterling.  Here is the pound against the dollar: Many commentators have taken the opportunity of the sell-off to castigate Brexit and Britain’s new prime minister, who seems bent on implementing ... read more...

Professed Sentiment vs. Deliberate Action: What Investors Say Often Isn’t What They Do

13 October, 2016 by Mark O'Brien in Commentary
In the mid-1980s I noticed that many portfolio managers, like myself, said they were bullish but were not managing their portfolios that way.  That’s because the previous ten years or so had been so bad that one just could not imagine they were really over.  Thus portfolio managers and ... read more...