Negative Bond Yields

4 November, 2019 by Mark O'Brien in Commentary
In my most recent letter to clients (appraisal letter dated October 11, 2019, which appears on this website) I wrote about the phenomenon of negative bond yields.  In short order more than one client wrote back and asked what in the world negative bond yields are, and why would anyone want to ... read more...

Quarterly Appraisal Letter September 30, 2019

The quarterly performance numbers look surprisingly tame. Stocks (S&P 500 Index) up 1.19 % Bonds (US Treasury 1.125% due 6/30/21) up 0.22%.  They do not hint at all of the drama and anguish that was the 3rd quarter, nor the fatigue most investors feel at the conclusion of the period. ... read more...

Update on the Economic and Investment Outlook for May 13, 2019

14 May, 2019 by Mark O'Brien in Commentary
As I begin this update, the Dow is off 700 points.  The drop is not as scary as that number might suggest.  With the numerical base of the stock market now at 26,000, or thereabouts, a 700-point drop represents about 3%.  For comparison, the Great Stock Market  Crash of October 19, 1987, when ... read more...

Beware Good News

8 May, 2019 by Mark O'Brien in Commentary
Beware good news.  Yesterday’s 450 point drop in the Dow is a good example of what can happen next.   But first the good news part.  On Saturday, May 4, 2019 I open my copy of the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal and beheld banner headlines: “The jobless rate hits a 50-year ... read more...

On the End of the Bull Market

24 December, 2018 by Matthew O'Brien, Ph.D. in Commentary
I’m resisting the urge to begin this brief post with a pun on “T’was the Night Before Christmas.”  In any case, today’s half-day of trading stocks sold off strongly again, cementing this December as one of the worst on record (since 1931 to be precise).  When the market closed at 1pm today the ... read more...